U.S. Enters the Fray
- The U.S., under former President Trump, joined Israel’s offensive with airstrikes on Iran’s Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear facilities, deploying bunker-buster bombs and Tomahawk missiles to “totally obliterate” them.
- The IAEA confirmed no major radiation leaks, although damage was described as “very significant”.
Iran Retaliates
- In response, Iran launched a missile barrage targeting Israel, including strikes on hospitals like the one in Beersheba—resulting in civilian casualties.
- Iran also fired missiles at the Al Udeid U.S. Air Base in Qatar, causing no casualties thanks to early warnings and interception.
Ceasefire Efforts & Violations
- A “12‑Day War” ceasefire was brokered by Trump, phasing in from June 23–24, with Iran agreeing to cease first and Israel following 12 hours later.
- However, shortly afterward, both sides accused each other of violations. Israel reported Iranian missile launches; Iran claimed Israel continued to strike Iranian targets.
Global & Regional Response
- Russia condemned U.S. strikes as “opening a Pandora’s box,” framing the action as unprovoked and worrying about nuclear escalation. Moscow offered to mediate but avoided military involvement.
- China, the EU, and the U.N. also denounced the U.S.–Israel-led operation, calling for renewed diplomacy and cautioning against destabilization.
- Oil prices surged as concerns grew over potential Strait of Hormuz closure, though Iran has so far held off on such a drastic move.
Civilian Impact & Displacement
- Iran reported over 950 military and civilian deaths, with thousands injured, and widespread damage to infrastructure, hospitals, prisons, and energy facilities in Tehran and other cities.
- In Israel, at least 24 people have been reported killed, with hospitals hit and thousands affected by missile alerts.
- Mass civilian displacement has occurred in Tehran, with tens of thousands fleeing north to avoid strikes .
What Comes Next?
| Concern | Details |
|---|---|
| Ceasefire durability | Both nations claim violations. Trust remains fragile, with potential for renewed escalation quickly. |
| Proxy escalation | Iranian-backed groups (Hezbollah, militias in Iraq/Syria) could join in, turning a bilateral war into a regional one. |
| Global stakes | Oil disruption fears may intensify. Russia and China’s stern warnings signal potential diplomatic isolation for the U.S.–Israel axis. |
| Nuclear repercussions | Iran may exit nuclear accords and accelerate its program. Meanwhile, strikes on its nuclear infrastructure remain controversial. |
Summary
- U.S. involvement has escalated the conflict by directly targeting Iranian nuclear sites.
- Iran responded with missile barrages into Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf.
- A fragile ceasefire is in effect, but both sides already accuse each other of breaches.
- Civilian suffering is immense and growing on both sides, with regional tensions heightening.
- Global actors (Russia, China, EU) are pushing back, urging diplomacy and warning of dire consequences.
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