While US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day suspension on new tariffs, JPMorgan Chase remains unconvinced that the move will shield the US economy from a looming downturn. The banking giant has maintained its forecast of a 60% chance of recession hitting the US this year, citing continued instability in economic policy.
The pause, announced just hours after certain tariffs were scheduled to take effect, is intended to give trading partners a window to negotiate with Washington and avoid further trade penalties. Markets initially reacted positively, with stocks seeing short-term gains. However, JPMorgan emphasized that the broader picture remains troubling.
“In light of the ongoing turbulence surrounding trade policy and fiscal direction, coupled with major equity losses and shaken consumer confidence, a recession still appears more likely than not,” the bank noted in a report published Wednesday, as cited by CNN. 
Earlier, credit rating agency Moody’s had also raised its recession risk estimate—from 15% to 40%—following the initial tariff threats.
JPMorgan added that while halting some of the more extreme trade measures is “a step in the right direction,” it doesn’t reverse the uncertainty or damage already done. The bank said, “All else being equal, reversing harsh tariff policies is positive, but far from sufficient to restore stability or offset recent economic shocks.”
The warning from one of Wall Street’s most influential institutions underscores the fragile state of confidence in the US economy—even amid short-term political concessions.
